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TWIRP Special Indexes Report and Analysis (2008/02/04) TWIRP Index Values (2008/01/28)

This is the TWIRP report covering price changes and economic trends for the week of January 28, 2008. Please read on for a summary of TWIRP index results, and be sure to check out the subsections for more index reports, charts and details.

If you are new to TWIRP and have not yet learned about how it works, I recommend reading either the sections Understanding TWIRP and TWIRP Index Details, or the more concise TWIRP Quick Guide. Without that background you may have a hard time understanding this report.

Global Composite Yield (TWIRP): 98.1 -2.8% q
Skill Composite Yield (TWIRP-S): 100.7 -1.2% q
Combat Composite Yield (TWIRP-C): 96.0 -5.1% qq
Key Items Affordability (TWIRP-X-KEY): 103.5 -3.6% q

Advancing Items: 141 (46.5%)
Declining Items: 132 (43.6%)
Unchanged Items: 30 (9.9%)

Item "Winner" of the Week: Potato: +73.7% pppp
Item "Loser" of the Week: Bronze bar: -60.7% qqqq

Index "Winner" of the Week: Kingdom of Miscellania Income : +11.2% ppp
Index "Loser" of the Week: Herb Drop Value: -29.2% qqqq

Crude Volatility Index (TWIRP-X-VOL): 861.2

After the second full week of the Summoning skill, market indices clearly show that most RuneScape players are firmly in “combat mode”. This week saw an acceleration of many combat-related trends from the week before, a reversal in some item spikes, and corrections in certain areas that had been rising dramatically for some time.

The overall TWIRP Global Composite Yield posted a rather sharp 2.8% decline, due almost entirely to changes related to combat; TWIRP-C was down steeply at -5.1% for the week. The Key Items Affordability Index also dropped by a hefty 3.6%, reflecting rises in the prices of many items. This will be a recurring theme as you read this week’s report; most of the numbers reflect the current broad emphasis on combat due to the Summoning skill, and the results this is having in terms of rising prices for combat supplies, and slumping prices of combat drops, which are being pumped into the game in large quantities. In fact, the index loser of the week was Herb Drop Value, which had been the winner of the week for each of the previous three; clearly, it was due to come back to earth!

Unfortunately, the changes made in the prior week to loosen price floors on the Grand Exchange was not an indicator of broader changes on the part of Jagex; there was no follow-through. As a (predictable) result, many items that had been freed to trade by the prior removal of price floors are now again stuck on price floors and unable to trade; these include gold bars, several types of fish and so forth. Will Jagex ever learn that a locked up market is a useless market?

In terms of skills, the big winners are generally those that provide supplies for the large crowd of hungry charm hunters: Farming, Herblore and Fishing. Runecrafting continues to jump all over the place as pure essence prices fluctuate, while Construction took a hit due to the loosening of price ceilings on planks and other supplies.

I have begun tracking the prices of several dozen new items, most of which are related to Summoning and other recent updates. This information will be preserved so it can be used to change the TWIRP indexes once it becomes clear which items are most important to the economy.

For more indexes, reports and analysis, be sure to read the subsections below. Otherwise, see you next week.

TWIRP Special Indexes Report and Analysis (2008/02/04) TWIRP Index Values (2008/01/28)