TruthScape.com - Preview of The Grand Exchange - The Bottom Line

Hopefully this preview has given you a good idea of what the Grand Exchange (GE) will probably be like, and a look at some of the important issues surrounding it. I’ll wrap things up now with some summaries and recommendations.

My overall assessment of the Grand Exchange is that it will be not only one of the most important changes to the game in years, but one of the most useful and appreciated. It will fix the long-standing problems of buyers and sellers either not being able to find each other, or wasting a ton of time and energy dealing with forum threads or chaotic in-game markets filled with spammers and cheats (Figure 74)..

**Figure 74: Will You Really Miss *This*? Not Me.**
There’s a reason I started alching my rune drops rather than selling them. I’d gladly lose 10k per rune scimmy or chain or two-hander rather than wade through this ridiculous chaos.

The winners of this update will be mainly those who are productive players; those who raise skills and fight monsters and PK and do all the other things that are central parts of the game. They will be able to spend less time buying and selling—something most people hate—and more time playing.

The biggest losers will be those who are trying to exploit market inefficiencies, and to take advantage of people who don’t have the time to learn every price by heart or who can’t get into perpetually-overloaded servers like World 2. Good merchants will adapt, while the ones looking for a free ride will, gee, actually have to go out and find something useful to do. The GE will also take a bite out of certain types of cheating and scamming.

As I mentioned in my overview of the Grand Exchange, what will happen depends entirely on how the system is implemented, but here’s what I think is most likely.

I expect the Grand Exchange to be released on November 26^th or 27^th, the Monday or Tuesday of the last week of the month. This timing would actually be good—if the GE comes out next week when most younger American RuneScape players are home for the Thanksgiving holiday, it will result in the GE being even more swamped than it would be otherwise.

I predict that there will initially be a huge influx of thousands of players all checking out the new feature, and especially, a bunch of people will want to try to use the GE to clear out items they’ve had rotting in their banks for some time. This will likely lead to drops in prices on certain less desirable items that there is a glut of within the game.

On the other hand, items that are useful but were rarely used before due to difficulty in buying them will experience a boom. I believe that whole new markets for items that were almost never traded before will spring up overnight thanks to the new Grand Exchange.

There will be lots of moaning and hysterics once the GE goes live, especially by the usual immature people who can’t deal with change, and those who are upset at the inevitable price fluctuations. The whining will likely be the loudest on the part of merchants, who will be upset that they can no longer make money as easily. With any luck Jagex will ignore these people, and in time they’ll learn to adjust and move on.

In a few days, much of the chaos will calm down and new trading price ranges and methods will be set for most commodities and items. The GE will take a lot of trading volume away from other marketplaces, including both the official RuneScape forums and third party boards. It will not kill off trading centers like World 2 Falador, and may actually make them more functional than they are now.

Unfortunately, based on past history, I must also predict that there will probably be some issues with the exchange. Jagex does not have a good track record of comprehensively testing out major updates, so some serious bugs and problems with the exchange are likely at first. I also expect some exploits and abuses to arise rather quickly, which I hope Jagex can plug in short order.

For players, my main piece of advice comes courtesy of the late, great Douglas Adams: Don’t Panic. While the changes that are going to happen are important and worth watching carefully, this is not something horrible that you need to rack your brains about, worrying over what’s going to go up or down or how you can make money or take advantage of price changes blah blah blah.

I would advise an initial cautious approach to using the Grand Exchange, once it is released. Rather than jumping in with both feet and trying to sell everything you’ve got that you don’t need or want, spend some time learning how the new system works, tracking prices and observing. Being patient and thoughtful usually pays off.

Another suggestion, especially for younger players, is to use the new Grand Exchange as a vehicle for learning. Depending on how Jagex operates the GE, using it could be a good, if simplified, introduction to real world investing and trading.

Finally, in general, just don’t obsess over money. RuneScape is a game, so just play it and have fun! J

I am sure that Jagex won’t listen to these ideas, even if they actually have occasion to read them, but I like to tilt at windmills so what the heck. J Actually, I would start off by optimistically congratulating Jagex; assuming that the system works roughly in the way I envision, it will be a blockbuster update that most players have wanted for a very long time.

I hope that the company will be sure to test, test and test again this new exchange to ensure that no disasters (like lost item bugs or whatnot) plague its introduction. This is one area where even small problems could have very big consequences, so I hope that the testing has been far above normal standards.

I also recognize that Jagex really has to walk a fine line here in terms of limits, costs and restrictions. If there are too few limits on how the system works, it will quickly devolve to chaos, market manipulation and abuse. If there are too many restrictions, though, the great potential of the GE will go to waste as people stick with forums and in-game markets.

I do hope, at the very least, that there are some costs in using the system, because if it is free I believe that preventing abuses will be impossible.

Finally, please make sure to write a firm but fair set of rules and guidelines for acceptable use of the Grand Exchange. Then, do everything possible to clearly communicate with all players what the rules are, and listen to feedback that is provided based on the first days’ use of the system. This will be critical to tweaking the GE for long-term success.