TruthScape.com  9  TruthScape Sneak Previews - Analysis of Upcoming RuneScape Features and Updates       9  TruthScape Sneak Previews - Why the Grand Exchange Could be RuneScape’s Most Important Update in Years

Preview of The Grand Exchange - How it Will Work is Still a Grand Mystery Preview of The Grand Exchange - The Relative Impact on Various Items and Markets

I’ve had occasion to speak with a number of RuneScape players who are completely mystified as to why so many people are speculating about the Grand Exchange (GE). They see it as just another way of trading, and heck, we already have ways of trading now, right? While I agree that some folks are going completely off the deep end about this—more on them later—I think that if you really look at the GE and analyze its potential impacts, it becomes clear that this is more than just “yet another update”.

(Okay, that’s kind of a mish-mash of English and Spanish, but you get my drift. J)

So, what’s the big deal about the GE? The simple answer is that it is going to revolutionize trade among RuneScape players, and trade is the oil that lubricates the machinery of RuneScape and keeps it running smoothly.

To understand why trade is about to be changed, one must take a look at the state of trade in RuneScape right now—and when you do, you’ll realize what a sorry state it is indeed. The fundamental problem is that most of RuneScape’s markets are grossly inefficient; in simplified economic terms, market inefficiency means that there are no easy ways for buyers and sellers to find each other, establish the going rate of exchange for items, and then trade them.

Most of the current trade in the game is conducted in three places: first, on the RuneScape forums; second, in well-established markets in specific cities and servers (like World 2 Falador or World 1 Varrock); and third, in other random locations like banks spread across the map and across over 100 servers. None of these marketplaces works particularly well, however. The forums are used by only a tiny fraction of RuneScape players; the majority of players don’t even know they exist. Places like World 2 Fally are confusing and hard to get into. And trying to trade in just “any old bank” is an exercise in frustration because it’s nearly impossible to find someone buying what you want to sell or vice-versa.

In short, trade is a problem right now because of the time it takes. Time is money, and when the time required to sell or buy something approaches or exceeds the value of the trade, people won’t bother. The difficulty of trading certain items in the game means that even though they may be very useful, and there may be dozens or even hundreds of potential buyers and sellers, there is virtually no trade.

As I look through my bank, for example, I see dozens of items that I do not need but that sit there because I am not going to spend hours trying to sell them. I have 13 pairs of rune boots, 12 lava battlestaves and 2 Berserker helms, 110 runite bars, bunches of herbs and seeds I never use, and so forth. There are thousands of other players just like me. Conversely, there are thousands of players who desperately would love to buy these items, but likewise, cannot be bothered trying to buy them.

What happens in a situation like this? Obviously, one result is that a lot of useful trade simply doesn’t happen. Another phenomenon that arises from inefficient markets is the merchant. These are people who attempt to bridge the gaps between buyers and sellers who otherwise couldn’t find each other. They buy from those who want to sell, and sell to those who want to buy, usually making a profit in the process. While merchants are much maligned—and in some cases deservedly so—most of them are simply providing a mechanism for efficient trade as a result of a poor system that doesn’t work well.

The new Grand Exchange is going to reduce all of the current problems with trade by providing a dramatically more efficient marketplace than any that has ever been in RuneScape before. These changes will lead to related changes in the behavior of players in at least three ways: first, as a direct response to the new trading method; second, as an indirect response to price changes from the new system; and finally, due to the ripple effects of the other changes just mentioned.

Direct changes will enable types of trade that were never possible, or at least practical, before. As I mentioned above, I have tons of items in my bank that I would sell if there were an efficient way of doing so. Likewise, there are many items I’d like to buy if I didn’t have to spend hours buying them. Consider that many skillers have skills they never use for training specifically because they cannot get the raw materials they need easily, or because it takes so long to sell the finished products that it’s not worthwhile. For example, while I can craft power ammys, I never do, because I don’t want to stand around in F2P selling them. With the GE, that could now be possible.

The GE is also going to lead to changes in prices, and price changes lead to changes in how the game is played. The vast majority of ‘Scapers rely on purchases and sales of various commodities and finished items in order to meet their in-game goals, and are thus sensitive to price changes. For example, if the price of bars goes down, more people will use those bars to get Smithing XP. If the price of certain rare weapons or armor goes up, more people will fight the monsters that drop them.

These early changes in behavior then create ripples that lead to further changes. For example, if the GE means that it becomes feasible to use power ammys for raising Crafting, then the price of diamonds could increase. If the price of diamonds goes up, then the price of enchanted diamond bolts will probably go up. And so on… in hundreds of different interrelated ways.

Another similar issue is that high-level players may now start selling items they used to alch. For example, many months ago I used to collect rune scimitars and chains that I got as drops in order to sell them in F2P, but now I alch them because of the hassle in trying to sell. With the GE, I might go back to selling, which will make them more available to those who need or want them, and will reduce prices.

In the end, there’s no way to know exactly what is going to change or how, but that change will occur is almost inevitable.

This impacts nearly everyone who fights monsters, levels skills, merchants and even PKers; later in this article I’ll explore who is going to be impacted the most. About the only people who won’t be affected are the rare “jack-of-all-trades” players who enjoy being self-sufficient and thus don’t trade with others.

And as a final bonus, the Grand Exchange will take another big bite out of scammers, who will have a much more difficult time preying on people than they do in the chaos of the current busy marketplace worlds.

Preview of The Grand Exchange - How it Will Work is Still a Grand Mystery Preview of The Grand Exchange - The Relative Impact on Various Items and Markets